Cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute said it will create a new prediction market specifically targeting the US election. The platform, dubbed “OutcomeMarket,” is set to launch next week across three chains, including Ethereum, Base, and Arbitrum.
New tokens, including TRUMP and HARRIS, will become tradable across multiple platforms upon launch.
Developed with support from Chaos Labs’ Edge Proofs Oracle, OutcomeMarket will operate without intermediaries and transaction fees.
The platform is expected to enhance liquidity, efficiency, and accessibility, as well as facilitate seamless cross-chain and multi-venue trading. Chaos Labs’ technology will ensure accurate data across platforms, which is crucial for maintaining market integrity.
“What sets our market and data integrity engine apart is the unique integration of advanced AI and LLMs with risk models,” stated Omer Goldberg, CEO of Chaos Labs. “This system aims to provide reliable, tamper-proof data feeds and real-time risk assessment.”
A Crazy Election
Wintermute also plans to introduce two new tokens, TRUMP and HARRIS, upon launch, with more listings expected in the future.
According to Wintermute CEO Evgeny Gaevoy, OutcomeMarket will be the first-of-its-kind platform that is open to everyone and has no associated costs. These features could give it an edge over competing prediction markets.
“No one had developed them in a permissionless manner and without imposing minting or transaction fees,” Gaevoy explained.
Once debuted, Wintermute’s platform will compete directly with Polymarket, the leading blockchain-based prediction market known for recent polls related to the upcoming American election.
Regulatory Challenges
Blockchain-based prediction markets have become increasingly popular, particularly those political ones. But the innovative approach has also drawn increasing scrutiny from regulators.
According to a recent report from Bloomberg, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is actively monitoring offshore betting platforms that allow U.S. traders to bet on election outcomes. The regulators are willing to take enforcement action against those that would enable U.S. traders to participate in unregulated election betting.
CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam stated that the CFTC will use its enforcement authority against anyone, including offshore platforms, that breaks the law to ensure the conduct stops.
Polymarket, with around $1 billion in trading volume linked to various U.S. election outcomes, is among the key targets.
The platform has indeed faced regulatory roadblocks in the U.S. since 2022, when the CFTC took enforcement action against Polymarket, resulting in a $1.4 million settlement due to the platform’s failure to register with the commission and provide trading services to U.S. customers.
Although Polymarket agreed to restrict U.S. trader access, reports indicate that American users are still able to engage on the platform.
Despite ongoing challenges, the platform still records massive user engagement and growing references by major news outlets. The popularity of Polymarket has extended beyond the blockchain community.
Last month, Bloomberg integrated Polymarket’s US presidential election odds data into its Terminal, aiming to boost access to real-time predictive information for its users.
Kalshi, another event market that allows users to trade on the outcomes of various events, also encounters similar regulatory difficulties. In September, the CFTC blocked Kalshi from offering contracts related to congressional elections.
Following the CFTC crackdown, a federal district court ruled in favor of Kalshi. According to the court ruling, the CFTC had exceeded its authority to block these contracts. However, the agency did not give up the case.
The CFTC recently filed an appeal against the court ruling. The case is ongoing, and the federal appeals court granted a stay on Kalshi’s ability to offer these contracts while the case is under further review.
The CFTC requested a stay, arguing that allowing those bettings poses a national security threat and could negatively impact public perception of elections. The CFTC’s scrutiny has not deterred Wintermute from entering the space with a new multi-chain prediction market.
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